第一上海:中国飞鹤目标价20.87港元 给予买入评级

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第一上海:中国飞鹤目标价20.87港元 给予买入评级

  国产婴幼儿奶粉领军者

  中国婴幼儿奶粉第一品牌中国飞鹤是中国首家年销售额突破百亿的国产婴幼儿奶粉企业,并连续五年荣获世界食品品质评鉴大会金奖。截止至2020上半年,公司实现营业收入87.1亿人民币,市占率达15.2%,是中国婴幼儿奶粉市场第一品牌。

  鲜明的品牌定位:飞鹤深耕婴幼儿配方奶粉领域,率先将品牌定位于“更适合中国宝宝体质”等差异化概念,通过突出“生牛乳湿法工艺”及“天然含有OPO”等技术,强调其产品新鲜及易吸收等特性,深度扎根消费者认知,形成鲜明的产品辨识度。

  持续提升的品牌力和高速扩张的销售网络成双驱动:飞鹤近几年大力推动公司的品牌宣传,通过线上线下多渠道推广,其品牌在消费市场中形成了很大的影响力,拥有了较高的认知和定位共识。另一方面,公司大力拓展其销售网络,高速扩张的线下销售网点是其过往卓越业绩成长的基石。我们预计,公司持续提升的品牌力及渠道力将继续成为企业未来高速发展的关键驱动力。

  未来有望带领国产奶粉业务继续扩大市场份额:飞鹤是少数未涉及2008年三聚氰胺事件的乳企之一,拥有一定的市场信任度。虽然目前中国奶粉消费市场仍以外资品牌为主,但随着这几年市场监管及各项政策对行业的规范愈发严格,大批中小品牌面临淘汰,为国产品牌带来大量缓冲的时间。而外资品牌多集中于一二线城市且难以下沉,这使得国产头部品牌率先抢占先机,整体行业格局得到优化。此外,洋奶粉由于近几年安全事故频发,再加上2020年疫情背景下外资品牌较国产品牌受到的负面冲击更大,二者在中国消费市场的增长呈现出了明显的两极分化现象。目前国产品牌市场份额正在快速回升,预计未来五年内,中国奶粉市场高端化及本土化将是整个行业发展的主旋律,飞鹤作为国产奶粉领军者,有望迎来良好的增长机遇。

  2020-2022年间净利润的年复合增长率25.6%:在上述因素驱动下,我们预计公司2020年实现营收收入为186.9亿元,归母净利润59.0亿元,归母净利率为31.6%,未来三年复合增长率有望达到25.6%。

  目标价20.87港元,买入评级:我们采用PEG估值法,给于公司1倍PEG,得出公司的目标价为20.87港元,对应的20/21年预测市盈率为32.5倍/25.6倍,较现价有27.7%的上升空间,首次投资评级为买入。

责任编辑:李双双

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