弱势震荡后市场的机会在那里?

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一、盘面解析

最近文章,不断谈到几点:

1、吃饭行情第一阶段至20日前后,接着月底有技术修正,量能向好还有再次低吸,12月初会有第二阶段小延续过程;

2、周二是多空小临界点,周三、四是继续修正过程,建议等周四或者周五信号,出现信号可以再次低吸,没有信号就耐心等;

3、市场热点分化,谨慎追涨,新能源中的汽车、电池,顺周期的有色、化工等是近期涨幅巨大,也到了一个短期高点;下面只能寻找落网之鱼,谨慎追涨!

4、周一三大指数大涨,大部分投资者开始亢奋,然而交易就是逆人性,唯有提前判断,才可以获得财富;

5、彭恩泽再次完美预测,提前判断下跌,喜欢的投资者不要忘记点个“赞”;


二、盘面热点解析

1、白酒涨幅巨大,已经背离基本面,严重透支业绩,这里需要清洗技术调整的过程;

2、新能源:蔚蓝、比亚迪等,涨幅巨大;周三发改委表态:开展新能源投资项目调查工作,详细报告恒大、宝能项目情况;这是一个短期多空分水岭!

3、顺周期,有色、化工涨价预期,属于阶段性的利好,从交易的逻辑看,近期调整后,还会有机会;但从长期看,周期股疯狂后,也会是一地鸡毛;

4、医药股:近期持续走弱,主要是疫苗预期告一段落;同时带量采购等影响,股价承受压力。

5、科技股:芯片、半导体、5G等,在市场弱势情况下,会有异动,比如周三的5G板块;

总结:主流板块涨幅巨大,市场需要新热点出现,目前没有,所以短期弱势格局将维持至月底。


三、指数分析

1、维持观点,耐心等待继续修正完成后的信号!

2、技术调整,先看10日均线,极端情况下会考验30日均线一点;目前看依然是健康的修正,不用过分恐慌;时间窗:周五附近。



周四早盘重要消息汇总

1、美股三大指数涨跌不一,纳指涨0.48%创收盘历史新高,道指跌0.58%,标普500指数跌0.16%。

大型科技股普涨,特斯拉涨超3%,亚马逊涨超2%。新能源汽车中概股回调,小鹏汽车跌超9%,理想汽车跌超7%;

2、发改委:开展新能源投资项目调查工作 详细报告恒大、宝能项目情况

3、多家信托再收融资类业务窗口指导!全年必须完成20%压降任务

4、北向资金25日净卖出15.69亿元

5、下发《关于加快推进可再生能源发电补贴项目清单审核有关工作的通知》,未来所有合规光伏风电项目都有望纳入补贴清单

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1.15收评|意想不到的数据,揭露A股重大秘密!

近期我们一直在分析今年以来的盘面特征,尤其是在股指上涨的情况下,大部分个股都是下跌的。有个数据可以很好的说明问题,年初至今以来收益为负的股票达到了3000家左右, 而两市一共只有4100多家股票。因此在这样的情况下就会出现赚了指数却亏钱的尴尬局面。

股市其实是一个少数人赚钱的地方,你只有具备系统性的技术理论知识、基本面的认知能力和良好的心态,才有可能在股市中大幅获利。也就是说大家必须要做好足够的功课,才能进入股市博弈。要不然凭运气赚回来的钱会凭实力亏回去。

这几天两市行情又出现了一些变化。如果经常看盘的朋友就会发现前期的强势板块纷纷调整。尤其是机构抱团的白酒出现明显的跌幅,某一线白酒股已经出现了两个跌停板。王者一直强调一个国家股市的繁荣不能只靠一两个板块支撑,这样的情况是不健康的!回顾历次大牛市,都是板块有序轮动,整体上涨的,而不是目前这种少数大象上涨大部分个股普跌的格局!

尤其是目前中国经济有很多中小企业,这些企业需要融资也需要快速发展。如果他们上市后的股票股性越来越低迷,那么将会被市场遗忘。而这绝不是管理层的初衷,之所以创业板率先推出注册制改革,也是为了活跃中小股票的交易。因此目前这样的局面要有所改变,是金子总会发光,好股票总会上涨!目前的中小盘股里面有很多被错杀的品种,已经跌出了价值!

今天的盘面出现一些喜人的变化,也就是前期强势抱团股逐渐进入了调整,而中小股票逐渐活跃。虽然两市股指都已经跌破的5日均线的支撑,但目前指数失真的迹象非常明显。以创业板为例,虽然创业板股指调整,但今天上涨家数远超下跌家数。这就是目前的情况,大家要适应这种变化!

2021年上半年重点把握科技股行情

2020年,农业、食品饮料、酿酒、航空、船舶,医疗、医药主导着全年最赚钱主线,在2020年下半年新能源汽车概念接力,锂电池和汽车板块大涨。其中锂电池中天齐锂业 补涨,赣锋锂业 、雅化集团 、天赐材料 、华友钴业 等个股普遍涨超超过200%;另外酿酒板块中酒鬼酒 从25元涨至232元,涨幅大概是900%;可谓是牛股遍地走!

今日期指交割市场震荡难免(15日早评)

早上好,昨日 虽然指数跌了,但上涨个股数量明显多于下跌个股数量,说明权重指标股调整更多,小盘股迎来喘息机会。回头看 2021 年以来,沪指先后突破3500点和3600点,创出2015年12月29日以来阶段新高,沪深300指数刷新2008年1月以来新高,A股成交额连续9日破万亿元。在大盘频创阶段新高之际,多数个股却越来越“凋萎”,股民赚了指数不赚钱。值得注意的是,机构投资者拥有强大的专业、信息及资金优势,并具有组合投资、分散风险的能力,机构投资者长期投资的平均收益率远高于散户。近几年来,A股结构性行情愈演愈烈,主流资金向优质龙头聚集,散户投资者出现了连年亏损现象。相较于追涨杀跌的散户,机构投资者更注重价值投资,这有利于提升A股的稳定性。散户最容易出现羊群效应,涨的时候容易引发泡沫;跌的时候容易诱发崩盘,而机构的长期价值投资理念,会使A股的波动收敛,更有利于形成慢牛格局。回头看今年A股整体的涨跌和成交情况可以发现,“结构性”牛市主要由大市值龙头频创新高推动。在大市值龙头股的“虹吸效应”下,多数中小市值股票陷入调整。究其原因,注册制下IPO常态化,资金流向“二八分化”加剧。股市增量资金中机构资金占“压倒性权重”,新增资金源源流入“抱团”重仓股,将A股市场结构性行情演绎到极致。近期机构抱团出现松动迹象,中小投资者不宜盲目追涨。

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